Nifty 50 Market Insights – Smart Money Push or Trap?

 

🧠 Nifty 50 Market Insights – Smart Money Push or Trap?

Date Analyzed: 9th June 2025 |

 Index Close: 25,103 (+0.40%)

🔍 Chart-Based Observations (1H Time Frame)

1. CPR Zone (Central Pivot Range):

Nifty is trading just above the CPR midpoint (P(cpr): 25096) and base CPR (BC: 25041).

This suggests price is trying to find base support, but hasn’t broken through top CPR (TC: 25118) convincingly yet.

2. Immediate Resistance:

25166–25163 (R3) acting as the next logical upside hurdle.

R4 is quite extended around 25246–25253, potential short-covering target if breakout sustains.

3. Price Action:

After a strong rejection from highs near 25160+, Nifty is consolidating inside CPR, indicating potential accumulation.

4. Support Zones:

Strong psychological & structural support: 25,000 (S1).

Deeper support: 24917–24914 (S2).

🔢 Derivative Data Insights (as of 09 June 2025)

Segment Value Trend/Implication

Future Index Net +42,426 🔼 Long Build-up by smart money

Option Index Net –95,872 🔽 Heavy Put unwinding / Call writing

Futures Variation (Daily) –13,125 📉 Partial profit booking post rise

Options Variation (Daily) –66,571 📉 Reduction in bullish bets

FII Net in Cash 1992Cr ✓ buying pressure from FIIs

DII Net in Cash +3,503 Cr ✅ Domestic support holding market

Pro Cumulative Index Options +1,38,985 ✅ Pros aggressively long in options

FII Cumulative Index Options +1,45,653 ✅ Reinforces long directional bias

🧠 Smart Money Behavioral Interpretation

FII:

Short covering seen in futures earlier; now some pullback.

Still net long in options (calls), suggesting a mildly bullish but cautious tone.

Pro (Professional Traders):

Heavily long in Index Options.

Indicates potential call spread strategies or breakout anticipation.

Retail (Client Category):

Typically counter trend—watch out if they load up heavily on longs tomorrow.

📈 Probable Nifty 50 Movement – 10th June 2025

Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout (if 25118–25163 is crossed with volume)

📍 Upside Targets:

25246 (R4 level)

25350 (round number + previous high area)

Scenario 2: Failure to Sustain Above CPR

📍 Downside Levels:

25041 (BC of CPR) – minor bounce possible

25,000 (psychological + S1) – decisive level

Below 25K: weakness can stretch to 24917–24900 (S2)

🎯 Actionable Strategy

🔄 Range Bias: 24900 – 25250

📈 Bullish Setup: Wait for a breakout above 25166 with volume. Avoid chasing early gaps.

📉 Bearish Setup: If price rejects 25118–25163 zone and slips below 25040, expect a dip toward 24900–24880.

🧲 Market Pulse Summary

Sentiment Interpretation

FII Mixed to bearish (cash selling)

DII Bullish supportive role

Options Data Mild bullish bias

Price Action Neutral with positive tilt

Anish Parashar

Indirect tax india research 

Disclaimer: Content reflects views of the author.For trading and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.