Decoding the Market Pulse: Is a Rebound Brewing in NIFTY 50?

Decoding the Market Pulse: Is a Rebound Brewing in NIFTY 50?

Date: 13th June 2025

Index Close: NIFTY 50 – 24,735.55 (🔻-169.60 pts | -0.68%)

Sector Watch:

Mixed; Financials and FMCG hold, IT and Metals under pressure

Technical Trend:

Testing support zone, early signs of bounce

📊 Derivatives Snapshot: 

Are the Bulls Gearing Up?

After a sharp intraday fall below 24,700, the Nifty 50 tested crucial support near S4 (24,853) and CPR BC (24,613). Interestingly, it staged a notable recovery into the close, hinting at short-covering or fresh long build-up.

🔹 Open Interest Data – 13th June 2025:

Index Futures Net OI: +5,065 contracts (Fresh long positions)

Options Net OI: -76,557 contracts (Short covering and hedge unwinding)

Net Cash Flow:

FII: 🔻 -₹3,289 Cr

DII: 🔼 +₹13,320 Cr

Pro: 🔼 +₹24,718 Cr

This shows a tactical shift in stance. While FIIs remain cautious sellers, Domestic Institutions (DIIs) and Pro Traders have been consistently supporting the market.

🧠 Smart Money Footprint: 

Who’s Driving the Market?

FIIs have now sold over ₹10,000 Cr in June, but DIIs continue to absorb this pressure—net buyers for 9 straight sessions, totaling ₹90,000+ Cr.

This divergence between foreign outflows and domestic inflows hints at long-term confidence from local institutions.

Proprietary traders added over ₹24,000 Cr on 13th June, showing speculative optimism, likely anticipating a bounce from current levels.

 Chart Overview:

Technical Levels to Watch

🔍 Key Levels:

Immediate Resistance:

CPR Pivot – 24,705

R1 – 24,95

Support Zones:

S1 – 24,656

BC (CPR) – 24,613

SAR Down Level: 25,021 (Breakout above this confirms strength)

RSI rebounded slightly from 34 to 35.5, and MACD is nearing a crossover, suggesting possible momentum reversal if follow-through buying appears.

🔮 What to Expect on 16th June 2025 (Monday)

✅ Bullish Case:

If Nifty holds above 24,705 and crosses 24,951,

Upside targets: 25,021 ➝ 25,100 ➝ 25,218

❌ Bearish Case:

Breakdown below 24,656 could invite fresh selling:

Targets: 24,613 ➝ 24,500

💡 Trading Strategy Ideas:

Type Strategy Entry Target SL

Intraday Long Buy above 24,750 25,000–25,100 24,645

Intraday Short Below 24,645 24,500 24,720

Option Writers Short Straddle ATM 24,700

Premium decay setup Hedge both sides

⚠️ Note: Trade cautiously. Volatility expected due to global cues and index balancing season.

📝 Final Take – Confidence Builds Beneath the Surface

Despite the headline drop, today’s action shows signs of accumulation at lower levels. With consistent DII buying and strong Pro activity, the setup leans cautiously bullish—but confirmation above 25,021 is key.

📍 Stay tuned for daily analysis on StockExcellence.in

Anish Jagdish Parashar 

Indirect tax india research

Disclaimer :Content above are author ‘s views.For trading and investment purposes consult your financial advisor.