nifty 50 Closing Price Trend:
The Nifty 50 index closed at 25,549 on June 26, 2025, up from 24,888.2 on June 12, 2025, reflecting a bullish trend with a gain of approximately 2.65% over two weeks.
The index has shown resilience, recovering from a low of 24,620 (June 4) to a recent high near 25,549, approaching a nine-month high.Posts on X suggest bullish momentum, with targets as high as 26,000 if the index sustains above 25,200–25,250, but also caution about potential pullbacks to 24,600–24,400 or lower if it fails to hold key supports.
Futures Index Net Open Interest:
FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors): Consistently net short in futures, with a cumulative net OI of -19,049 on June 26, 2025, though the short position reduced from -71,798 on June 24. This suggests some short covering or reduced bearish bets by FIIs.
DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors): Net long with 28,227 contracts on June 26, down from 53,065 on June 13, indicating reduced bullish conviction or profit booking.
Proprietary Traders (Pro): Net short at -12,309 on June 26, aligning with FIIs but with less intensity.
Daily Index Futures Variation: FIIs added 36,880 contracts (long positions) on June 26, while DIIs unwound -78,925 contracts, signaling a shift in sentiment. This could indicate FIIs covering shorts or initiating longs, while DIIs are taking profits.
Options Index Net Open Interest:
FIIs:
Net short at -3,501 on June 26, a significant reduction from -71,622 on June 3, suggesting short covering in options or less aggressive bearish positioning.
Proprietary Traders: Strongly net long at 112,029, with a cumulative OI of 108,528, indicating bullish bets in the options market, likely through call buying or put selling.
Daily Index Options Variation:
FIIs added 36,880 contracts, while DIIs unwound -78,925, consistent with futures activity, showing FIIs turning less bearish and DIIs reducing exposure.High OI in options (cumulative 108,528) suggests significant activity around key strike prices, which can act as support or resistance.Nifty Bank Index:Closed at 57,206.7 on June 26, up from 55,527.35 on June 13, a 3% rise, outperforming Nifty 50 slightly.Banking sector weakness was noted earlier in June, but the recent rally suggests renewed buying interest.
Global Indices:
NASDAQ Composite: Rose from 19,447.41 (June 20) to 19,973.55 (June 25), a 2.7% gain, indicating tech-driven bullishness.
Dow Jones: Increased from 42,206.82 (June 20) to 42,982.43 (June 25), up 1.8%.S&P 500: Marginally up from 5,967.84 (June 20) to 6,092.16 (June 25), a 2.1% gain.Positive global cues, particularly from tech-heavy NASDAQ, may support Indian indices, though correlations can weaken during local expiry events.
Market Sentiment from X Posts:
Bullish views dominate, with analysts targeting 25,500–26,000 if Nifty holds above 25,200–25,250.Resistance is noted at 25,116–25,330, with support at 24,970–25,100. A break below 24,460 could trigger a sharper correction to 24,400–23,350.
Options activity suggests 26,000 PE (put) decay, indicating reduced downside protection and potential for further upside.
Technical Analysis and Critical LevelsBased on recent web sources and X posts, the Nifty 50 is in a bullish phase but nearing key resistance levels.
Here are the critical levels and probable movements:
Key Resistance Levels:25,500: A psychological and technical barrier. A sustained close above this could target 25,750–26,000 (Elliott Wave 3rd wave projection).25,138–25,330: Immediate resistance zones. A break above 25,330 with strong volume could confirm bullish continuation toward 26,000+.26,277.35: All-time high (September 27, 2024). A new high could open targets of 26,500–26,700 by mid-July.
Key Support Levels:25,100–24,970: Neutral zone with high options OI. Sideways consolidation is likely here if momentum stalls.24,800–24,900: Strong support, as Nifty reclaimed this level after dipping below on June 18. 24,460–24,600: Critical support. A 30-minute close below 24,460 could trigger a correction toward 24,400–23,900.23,900: Major support. A breakdown below this could lead to 23,500–23,350, though this is less likely given current bullish momentum.
Open Interest Insights:
High OI in calls at 25,500 and 26,000 strikes suggests resistance, as these are levels where call writers are active.High OI in puts at 25,000 and 24,500 indicates strong support, as put writers are defending these levels.The shift in FIIs from net short to adding long positions and proprietary traders’ bullish options OI (108,528) suggest a bullish bias. A PCR below 1 typically indicates call-heavy activity, supporting upside potential.
Volatility and Expiry:
June 26 was a monthly expiry day, which saw Nifty rally past 25,500 with a 1,000-point Sensex surge, indicating strong bullish momentum.High options OI and expiry-related volatility could lead to choppiness around 25,100–25,500 in the near term.
Probable Movement
Bullish Scenario (More Likely):
Trigger: Sustained close above 25,200–25,250 with strong volume and continued FII short covering.Target: 25,750 (short-term) and 26,000–26,500 (mid-term, by mid-July).
Rationale:FIIs reducing short positions in futures (-19,049 from -71,798) and options (-3,501 from -71,622) suggest short covering or neutral positioning.Proprietary traders’ heavy long OI in options (112,029) indicates bullish bets, likely through call buying or put selling.Positive global cues from NASDAQ and S&P 500, combined with banking sector strength (Nifty Bank up 3%), support further upside.
Elliott Wave analysis suggests a sharp 3rd wave rally above 25,060, targeting 25,500+.Strategy: Buy on dips near 25,000–24,970 with a stop-loss below 24,800. Target 25,750–26,000.
Bearish Scenario (Less Likely):
Trigger: Failure to sustain above 25,100 or a 30-minute close below 24,970, followed by a break below 24,460.Target: 24,600–24,400, with potential for 23,900–23,350 if global markets turn negative.Rationale:DIIs unwinding -78,925 contracts in futures suggests profit booking, which could cap upside if FIIs resume shorting.High call OI at 25,500 and 26,000 may act as resistance, triggering selling if momentum fades.
Global risks (e.g., geopolitical tensions or banking crises) could spark a correction, as cautioned in X posts.
Strategy: Short below 24,970 with a stop-loss above 25,100. Target 24,600–24,400.Neutral Scenario:Range: 24,970–25,330. High OI in calls and puts around these levels suggests consolidation if neither bulls nor bears gain control.Rationale: Expiry-related volatility and mixed FII/DII activity could lead to sideways movement.
Strategy: Sell straddles/strangles at 25,000–25,500 strikes for range-bound trading, with strict risk management.
Critical Levels to Watch
Upside Breakout: 25,500 (immediate), 25,750 (next hurdle), 26,000–26,277.35 (all-time high).
Downside Risk: 24,970–25,100 (neutral zone), 24,800–24,460 (strong support), 23,900 (major support).
Volatility Indicators: Monitor India VIX (not provided but referenced as a volatility gauge). A spike above 15 could signal increased risk of a pullback.
Additional Notes
Global Influence:
The bullish trend in NASDAQ and S&P 500 supports risk-on sentiment, but any sharp reversal (e.g., due to U.S. economic data or geopolitical events) could pressure Indian markets.Banking Sector: Nifty Bank’s outperformance (57,206.7) suggests strength in financials, a key driver for Nifty 50. Watch Bank Nifty support at 56,000 and resistance at 57,500.
Options Strategy: Given high OI in 25,500 CE and 25,000 PE, a bull call spread (buy 25,500 CE, sell 26,000 CE) or a bear put spread (buy 25,000 PE, sell 24,500 PE) could be effective for directional trades.
Conclusion
The Nifty 50 is likely to remain bullish in the near term, with a potential to test 25,750–26,000 if it sustains above 25,200–25,250, supported by FII short covering, proprietary traders’ bullish options OI, and positive global cues. However, traders should remain cautious of resistance at 25,500 and potential pullbacks to 24,970–24,460 if momentum weakens.
Monitor FII/DII activity and global indices for confirmation of the trend. For intraday and positional trades, use the identified support and resistance levels with strict stop-losses to manage expiry-related volatility.
Disclaimer: Trading involves high risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Anish Jagdish Parashar
Indirect tax india research
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